That "Real Construction Spending" chart is amazing!
With some folk way smarter than me looking for H2 tightness in the oil market and oil positioning looking rather extreme, a crude rally here could have legs. Crude up => CPI up => rates up => finally a recession? Now that recession calls are getting abandoned like clothes at a nudist camp, an econ rug pull would be de rigueur.
Thanks for the post. I’m still long TLT, because the Fed will not stop hiking until unemployment gaps up. The higher for longer the short-term rates get, the lower long-term growth and inflation expectations go.
Thanks for your analysis! Just wonder why don't you express this take via fx, short euro long usd, for example?
Thanks, Florian! Based on your analysis, ECB should reduce rates sooner than the Fed, so EUR should depreciate against USD, do you agree?
Agree with bearish view on EUR, however FX most difficult asset class to call
Long US short EU pair
That "Real Construction Spending" chart is amazing!
With some folk way smarter than me looking for H2 tightness in the oil market and oil positioning looking rather extreme, a crude rally here could have legs. Crude up => CPI up => rates up => finally a recession? Now that recession calls are getting abandoned like clothes at a nudist camp, an econ rug pull would be de rigueur.
Thanks for the post. I’m still long TLT, because the Fed will not stop hiking until unemployment gaps up. The higher for longer the short-term rates get, the lower long-term growth and inflation expectations go.