6 Comments
Jul 4, 2023Liked by Florian Kronawitter

Thanks for your analysis! Just wonder why don't you express this take via fx, short euro long usd, for example?

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Jul 4, 2023Liked by Florian Kronawitter

Thanks, Florian! Based on your analysis, ECB should reduce rates sooner than the Fed, so EUR should depreciate against USD, do you agree?

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Long US short EU pair

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That "Real Construction Spending" chart is amazing!

With some folk way smarter than me looking for H2 tightness in the oil market and oil positioning looking rather extreme, a crude rally here could have legs. Crude up => CPI up => rates up => finally a recession? Now that recession calls are getting abandoned like clothes at a nudist camp, an econ rug pull would be de rigueur.

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Thanks for the post. I’m still long TLT, because the Fed will not stop hiking until unemployment gaps up. The higher for longer the short-term rates get, the lower long-term growth and inflation expectations go.

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