Thank you, Florian. What am I missing? It looks like there are hundreds of days of crude oil (obviously other bottlenecks) inventory to cover the crisis?
There are 8.2 billion barrels of observed global inventories vs an 10 (IEA)m barrel per day deficit. Claude estimates 60-70% is pipeline fill/ in transit so not drawable. The IEA sees 1.8 billion barrels of OECD buffer +1.2bn China so ~270 days' buffer
Your read on the critical decision point for the global economy is well-timed. The synchronized hawkish hold from the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England this week feels like that fork made real, where cutting to support growth risks unanchoring inflation expectations while holding risks amplifying the slowdown. I just published a breakdown of where each major central bank stands right now: https://thisweekineconomics.substack.com/p/global-central-banks-lock-into-hawkish
Last time I checked performance of your account since inception was around +150%. Do you mind sharing what trades led to the massive increase in P&L over the last few months? Is there any specific one that stands out? Thank you again for your substack. Always enjoy reading your thoughts.
very timely, very nuanced; excellent analysis. Thank you!
Excellent work. Thank you for sharing.
Been reading you for a few years now and all the richer for it. Great stuff as always, sir.
Amazing work, Florian, thanks for sharing!
Always well timed and so informative. My thanks!
Outstanding Florian 🙏
Thank you for the very informative post. The financial sector will be a turkey at this point due to current macro and PE issue I think.
Very interesting piece. I always enjoy your work. Thank you.
As always, a great read. Thanks for the taking the time.
Thank you, Florian. What am I missing? It looks like there are hundreds of days of crude oil (obviously other bottlenecks) inventory to cover the crisis?
There are 8.2 billion barrels of observed global inventories vs an 10 (IEA)m barrel per day deficit. Claude estimates 60-70% is pipeline fill/ in transit so not drawable. The IEA sees 1.8 billion barrels of OECD buffer +1.2bn China so ~270 days' buffer
https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/a25ddf53-cd6c-4910-ac90-16bfd28399e7/-12MAR2026_OilMarketReport.pdf
"Consumer countries have significant amounts of oil in storage to bridge temporary supply losses.
Global observed inventories of crude and products are currently assessed at more than 8.2 billion
barrels, the highest level since February 2021. Roughly half of these are held in OECD countries, of
which 1.25 billion barrels by governments for emergency purposes, with a further 600 million barrels
of industry stocks held under government obligation"
Your read on the critical decision point for the global economy is well-timed. The synchronized hawkish hold from the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England this week feels like that fork made real, where cutting to support growth risks unanchoring inflation expectations while holding risks amplifying the slowdown. I just published a breakdown of where each major central bank stands right now: https://thisweekineconomics.substack.com/p/global-central-banks-lock-into-hawkish
Really appreciate your posts these past couple of years, and especially now in these rapidly evolving times! Thanks.
Last time I checked performance of your account since inception was around +150%. Do you mind sharing what trades led to the massive increase in P&L over the last few months? Is there any specific one that stands out? Thank you again for your substack. Always enjoy reading your thoughts.