Thanks Florian. I've gone down the journalling approach and feeding it into a LLM as well. Did you use specific research or books for it to draw or to analyse the journalling? I don't think I'm getting the best out of the LLM in terms of pattern recognition and think it's related to asking it how to behave
Congratulations - that's an amazing achievement. Also appreciate you not flogging anything on the back of it, as many would do!
Feels like that so many of the best results have just come from being bullish Momo, so it's good to hear of someone performing so well and staying humble.
Terrific and thoughtful post. Reminds me of a Charlie Munger quote regarding successful investing - “It’s not supposed to be easy. Anyone who finds it easy is stupid.” Thanks for sharing!
Hey Florian, I’ve been following you for a while and just wanted to say that your work is great.
I have a question (actually, many more, but let’s stick to one) regarding DDT. I follow a similar process in my trading, but unlike you, my background is technical. Over the last 3–4 years, I’ve been trying to incorporate global macro (narratives) into my setups, especially for longer-term (from a few weeks to a few months) trades.
My thinking is that if something is visible on the chart, it should reflect some narrative or theme that’s emerging or already in play. Still, I find it difficult to read the market through the lens of narratives. How can I tell whether a theme is still alive, or if something new (or maybe just a nuance of the dominant narrative) is taking over?
I understand the importance of the trading timeframe, and mixing time horizons only makes things more complicated. But let’s leave that aside and assume the timeframe of the setup and the narrative are properly aligned.
Thanks! Very helpful indeed for those like me who still have so much to learn. How long does it take you to review the 100 charts? And how do you decide what timeframe to concentrate on for each of those charts? I find that with price action, the conclusions can change depending on whether you look at 6 months, 1 year, 5 years or 20 years charts.
And at the risk of asking one too many questions, could you please educate me on the difference between portfolio risk and NAV, in particular in this sentence: « small portfolio risk of 25bps = 6% NAV size ». Is the 25bps the maximum you can lose if the stop gets hit?
Extremely interesting Framework - i have been waiting for this post! Can I ask you something regarding price action and "markets getting dumber"? I have been thinking a lot about Rob Citrones (Discovery Capital Management) recent comment that due to the rise of retail and machine money, markets have become much less anticipatory and more reactive to headlines which makes timing more difficult but can be exploited if you are able to have a view and sit with your position. It makes sense to me because besides some global macro hedge funds there are not many strategies left that can take a longer view and anticipate - which should distort price signals. Maybe you can share why you think that price signals are nevertheless very informative? Thanks!
Thanks and congrats. I am and will be heavily invested in ai and energy related to ai datacenters. I believe too many are discounting how huge a part ai will play in our minute to minute lives within 5 years.....and robotics related to ai. I could be wrong. 20% cash to buy more on dips.
Oh and I do own some $dbc since printing money means prices go up, normally haha.
Thanks Florian. I've gone down the journalling approach and feeding it into a LLM as well. Did you use specific research or books for it to draw or to analyse the journalling? I don't think I'm getting the best out of the LLM in terms of pattern recognition and think it's related to asking it how to behave
Congratulations - that's an amazing achievement. Also appreciate you not flogging anything on the back of it, as many would do!
Feels like that so many of the best results have just come from being bullish Momo, so it's good to hear of someone performing so well and staying humble.
Terrific and thoughtful post. Reminds me of a Charlie Munger quote regarding successful investing - “It’s not supposed to be easy. Anyone who finds it easy is stupid.” Thanks for sharing!
may I ask you in which all ways do you utilize AI in your investment research/investing?
Hey Florian, I’ve been following you for a while and just wanted to say that your work is great.
I have a question (actually, many more, but let’s stick to one) regarding DDT. I follow a similar process in my trading, but unlike you, my background is technical. Over the last 3–4 years, I’ve been trying to incorporate global macro (narratives) into my setups, especially for longer-term (from a few weeks to a few months) trades.
My thinking is that if something is visible on the chart, it should reflect some narrative or theme that’s emerging or already in play. Still, I find it difficult to read the market through the lens of narratives. How can I tell whether a theme is still alive, or if something new (or maybe just a nuance of the dominant narrative) is taking over?
I understand the importance of the trading timeframe, and mixing time horizons only makes things more complicated. But let’s leave that aside and assume the timeframe of the setup and the narrative are properly aligned.
Very interesting! Thanks for sharing Florian! Looking forward to future write ups :)
Thanks! Very helpful indeed for those like me who still have so much to learn. How long does it take you to review the 100 charts? And how do you decide what timeframe to concentrate on for each of those charts? I find that with price action, the conclusions can change depending on whether you look at 6 months, 1 year, 5 years or 20 years charts.
And at the risk of asking one too many questions, could you please educate me on the difference between portfolio risk and NAV, in particular in this sentence: « small portfolio risk of 25bps = 6% NAV size ». Is the 25bps the maximum you can lose if the stop gets hit?
Extremely interesting Framework - i have been waiting for this post! Can I ask you something regarding price action and "markets getting dumber"? I have been thinking a lot about Rob Citrones (Discovery Capital Management) recent comment that due to the rise of retail and machine money, markets have become much less anticipatory and more reactive to headlines which makes timing more difficult but can be exploited if you are able to have a view and sit with your position. It makes sense to me because besides some global macro hedge funds there are not many strategies left that can take a longer view and anticipate - which should distort price signals. Maybe you can share why you think that price signals are nevertheless very informative? Thanks!
Love your perspective Florian! 🙏🏻
This is fantastic and I appreciate your great work. Hope to see your work all the time, whatever long or short.
Thanks and congrats. I am and will be heavily invested in ai and energy related to ai datacenters. I believe too many are discounting how huge a part ai will play in our minute to minute lives within 5 years.....and robotics related to ai. I could be wrong. 20% cash to buy more on dips.
Oh and I do own some $dbc since printing money means prices go up, normally haha.
Great job and welcome back! I’m surprised to hear that you don’t use more concentration and have such high turnover.