Fantastic and thoughtful as always. I am concerned about a lot the labor stats as well. The BLS NFP data is just not very good, especially at turning points. I think the likelihood of reacceleration is still very low given LEIs. Hours worked really has been trending down, not just weather from last month, and that is in a pretty ugly divergence with the payroll data. NFP is generally the most lagging of statistics and subject to a ton of revisions. The market may go with NFP, but I cannot.
thanks for the analysis. I have read some spins on Twitter that mirror your take on rates, i.e. higher for longer would massively favour Mag7 due to cash moats and scale.
So industrials do well in high growth rising dollar because demand increases while commodity prices fall thus increasing their margins. Do I have that right?
Hi Florian, what is the definition of AI-Second Leg? Thanks.
Florian, another great call.
I think you were one of the few non-perma bears calling for caution, raising cash and calling a local top.
Excellent analysis. So would you give tsla a buy? At these prices....seems like a bargain for risk/reward
Fantastic and thoughtful as always. I am concerned about a lot the labor stats as well. The BLS NFP data is just not very good, especially at turning points. I think the likelihood of reacceleration is still very low given LEIs. Hours worked really has been trending down, not just weather from last month, and that is in a pretty ugly divergence with the payroll data. NFP is generally the most lagging of statistics and subject to a ton of revisions. The market may go with NFP, but I cannot.
thanks for the analysis. I have read some spins on Twitter that mirror your take on rates, i.e. higher for longer would massively favour Mag7 due to cash moats and scale.
Hi mFlorian. many thanks for sharing your analysis and ideas> Really appreciated!
So industrials do well in high growth rising dollar because demand increases while commodity prices fall thus increasing their margins. Do I have that right?
And I thought my 50% T-bill allocation was high. Thanks as always for sharing your perspective.