Great article as always however I got some confusion as to your perspective. In the last paragraph you write that: "I remain of the view that, just like in the past 70 years, equities follow the economy." and a moment later: "...economic downside...is likely frontrun by markets by a few months...."
If economic downturn is likely frontrun by the markets than economic upside as well, right? And if we have just seen the bottom in the PMI New Orders that could mean that the market has already frontrun this bottom in October. Am I thinking right here?
great article, thanks!
Those that don't remember history are doomed to repeat it. Well Done!
Thank you!
Florian, How do you view the stellar job report yesterday (around half million increase in non-farm payroll)? Has it changed your view? If not, why?
Amazing analysis, thanks for the going through the effort and writing it up for us.
Great article as always however I got some confusion as to your perspective. In the last paragraph you write that: "I remain of the view that, just like in the past 70 years, equities follow the economy." and a moment later: "...economic downside...is likely frontrun by markets by a few months...."
If economic downturn is likely frontrun by the markets than economic upside as well, right? And if we have just seen the bottom in the PMI New Orders that could mean that the market has already frontrun this bottom in October. Am I thinking right here?
Thank you! In my view PMIs trough in the Fall