You name 3 reasons why volatility could drive up. 2 of them are related to geopolitics, and even though you might be right on the outcomes, i find it very hard to trade based on geopolitics. If anything (in my personal experience), increasing uncertainty is usually short lived, which confirms the mean reverting nature of volatility. While you're certainly right on the current low levels of both VIX and VVIX, I find it extremely difficult to time to catch spikes, so i mostly watch the action from the sidelines. I usually use the ratio of VVIX / VIX to time vol spikes, this one is on its way back down. Best luck with the call spread and thank you for you valuable content.
I agree there's an unwarranted level of complacency in the market. That said, I'd be careful with historical comparisons of the VIX. The demand for 30 day options has been decreased by the boom of 0 DTE options. Traders now have the option to buy much shorter term hedges and are doing so, thus the recent introduction of the 1 day VIX by the CBOE.
In the long run I think this is good for market transparency as 30 day measures of volatility aren't skewed by 1-day events in the window (Fed meetings, earnings, NFP reports, etc).
You name 3 reasons why volatility could drive up. 2 of them are related to geopolitics, and even though you might be right on the outcomes, i find it very hard to trade based on geopolitics. If anything (in my personal experience), increasing uncertainty is usually short lived, which confirms the mean reverting nature of volatility. While you're certainly right on the current low levels of both VIX and VVIX, I find it extremely difficult to time to catch spikes, so i mostly watch the action from the sidelines. I usually use the ratio of VVIX / VIX to time vol spikes, this one is on its way back down. Best luck with the call spread and thank you for you valuable content.
I agree there's an unwarranted level of complacency in the market. That said, I'd be careful with historical comparisons of the VIX. The demand for 30 day options has been decreased by the boom of 0 DTE options. Traders now have the option to buy much shorter term hedges and are doing so, thus the recent introduction of the 1 day VIX by the CBOE.
In the long run I think this is good for market transparency as 30 day measures of volatility aren't skewed by 1-day events in the window (Fed meetings, earnings, NFP reports, etc).
Mostly options.
What product do you use for VIX?