Thank you for your amazing blog. I'm learning more than from certain paid groups. Your track record is also very impressive through all of these posts.
This is such an amazing post, Mr. Kronawitter. Amazing and really looks timeless due to the theoretical framework behind it.
I really appreciate the deeper dive on the concept of reflexivity. It really makes you humble to understand how the informed and even the very well informed can be so wrong. It even plays with my mind to understand how consensus actually attempts against itself.
Great post.
On the markets side, I fully agree that China is oversold. Sentiment is rarely as bearish as we´ve seen. I recall at least two The Economist covers and one lengthy WSJ article in the last month, all of them describing how China is beyond salvation. On this backdrop, I´ve added CQQQ.
One question if I may, Mr. Kronawitter: how do you think the duality between oversold/bearish consensus and owership vs the reality of a very bumpy and negative path ahead for China´s macro play out?
would you say one need to focus on the shorter term of the spectrum when trading rather than in the gloomy future for China?
Oh my god, this was hands down (in my opinion) your best article so far. So much value. I especially liked the insights from your time managing fund. I think this could be a very interesting angle for another substack, "stories from the time when i was managing a fund".
This is a treatise to be read, saved, and referred to periodically when markets are in turmoil. Thank you!
Thanks so much!
Great educational piece. I was longing for a more nuanced & more recent version of Soros reflexivity concept. I can relate & learned a lot!
Thank you, my pleasure!
Thank you for your amazing blog. I'm learning more than from certain paid groups. Your track record is also very impressive through all of these posts.
My pleasure! Thank you :)
This is such an amazing post, Mr. Kronawitter. Amazing and really looks timeless due to the theoretical framework behind it.
I really appreciate the deeper dive on the concept of reflexivity. It really makes you humble to understand how the informed and even the very well informed can be so wrong. It even plays with my mind to understand how consensus actually attempts against itself.
Great post.
On the markets side, I fully agree that China is oversold. Sentiment is rarely as bearish as we´ve seen. I recall at least two The Economist covers and one lengthy WSJ article in the last month, all of them describing how China is beyond salvation. On this backdrop, I´ve added CQQQ.
One question if I may, Mr. Kronawitter: how do you think the duality between oversold/bearish consensus and owership vs the reality of a very bumpy and negative path ahead for China´s macro play out?
would you say one need to focus on the shorter term of the spectrum when trading rather than in the gloomy future for China?
Thanks again.
Valentino
Thank you! On China, nothing is certain, the gloomy future you reference could also outweigh positioning. It is just that the odds look attractive
Oh my god, this was hands down (in my opinion) your best article so far. So much value. I especially liked the insights from your time managing fund. I think this could be a very interesting angle for another substack, "stories from the time when i was managing a fund".
Thank you so much! And yes will give that some thought
Thank you Florian as always for this well written and insightful article.
Thank you Nils 🙏🏼👍🏻
Great writing and insights!
Thank you!
ps It clearly shows you've been in the arena! ;-) Respect for your candid view...
Arena indeed :) appreciate the observation 👍🏻
What a great piece. Thanks!
Any thoughts on how to determine if outperformance is from luck or skill? It is a question I frequently find myself asking about my own returns.
Thank you! I think you need to assess over a long period of time, but yeah it is hard to dissect!
Very helpful article. Thanks for the work you put on.
My pleasure!