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Jake M's avatar

Regarding China re-opening causing inflation, I find it interesting that people also used China's lockdown as source of inflation (people not going to work and supply chain disruption). Also, unlike other Asian countries that give out money directly to help the people, China doesn't do that. China stimulates generally by making borrow condition lose for the business so it's more of a supporting on the supply side. So, we only look at the demand side of the equation without looking at the supply side.

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John Heywood's avatar

Thank you for sharing your thinking. Could you explain why liquidity as measured by Fed balance sheet - TGA - RRP should explain equity returns? The overlay chart makes a point, but over longer periods, the relationship is weaker. Some would argue it's better to look at duration supply (which shouldn't be affected by the TGA rundown) ...

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