Florian, great article thanks. What is you theory behind why the $DAX had such a strong rally. It rallied right out the weekly downtrend channel, and is now is more overbought on the daily RSI, than I have ever seen it. Europe has more problems than the US. $DOW has also been very strong also. Biggest contributor is likely $GS but their earnings are flat. Thanks Stefan
Excellent wrap-up Florian. You hit all the right areas and developed a great overall view of how the areas overlap and interrelate. Super analysis. Many thanks for sharing that with us! Rick
Why do you think casinos in particular are the antithesis to shrinking money supply? Aren't they an addiction which has low elasticity of demand or during bad times some people even start/increase gambling as the last chance...? I do not know for sure, therefore I am asking for your opinion.
Agree with addiction issue for some customers. Comment was meant more philosophically. Gambling (=casinos) is more prevalent when money is abundant. When money supply shrinks reverse happens
Regarding oil I fully agree with your view and I cut my position 75% in the past few months on macro concerns (Mainly Canadian E&P that unlike the XLE are still far from their mid-year peak probably because it is less influenced by macro flows). But at this point I cannot square the supply demand balance. We have seen stable oil stocks during the year on the back of SPR releases. But now we have had 2 weeks of draining US inventories with the SPR still providing barrels but that is set to end within a month. So, this keeps me mulling the idea that unless we see a full meltdown of the economy (possible but not sure that is likely) I don't see much downside in the sector.
And if you chart the history of US crude oil stock including the SPR you can see that we are approaching rapidly to the absolute bottom of the last 30 years that was reached in 2001. So, I would think that even in an economic meltdown scenario the curve should move into deep backwardation with future prices much less affected providing some support to companies.
Any thought regarding the supply-demand balance in the current stock scenario?
Florian, great article thanks. What is you theory behind why the $DAX had such a strong rally. It rallied right out the weekly downtrend channel, and is now is more overbought on the daily RSI, than I have ever seen it. Europe has more problems than the US. $DOW has also been very strong also. Biggest contributor is likely $GS but their earnings are flat. Thanks Stefan
Thanks for this. Think oversold + china reopen drove it
Great article once again. Thank you.
Thank you very much Mike!
Excellent wrap-up Florian. You hit all the right areas and developed a great overall view of how the areas overlap and interrelate. Super analysis. Many thanks for sharing that with us! Rick
Thank you Rick, my true pleasure
Why do you think casinos in particular are the antithesis to shrinking money supply? Aren't they an addiction which has low elasticity of demand or during bad times some people even start/increase gambling as the last chance...? I do not know for sure, therefore I am asking for your opinion.
Agree with addiction issue for some customers. Comment was meant more philosophically. Gambling (=casinos) is more prevalent when money is abundant. When money supply shrinks reverse happens
As usual, Another Excellent post!
Regarding oil I fully agree with your view and I cut my position 75% in the past few months on macro concerns (Mainly Canadian E&P that unlike the XLE are still far from their mid-year peak probably because it is less influenced by macro flows). But at this point I cannot square the supply demand balance. We have seen stable oil stocks during the year on the back of SPR releases. But now we have had 2 weeks of draining US inventories with the SPR still providing barrels but that is set to end within a month. So, this keeps me mulling the idea that unless we see a full meltdown of the economy (possible but not sure that is likely) I don't see much downside in the sector.
And if you chart the history of US crude oil stock including the SPR you can see that we are approaching rapidly to the absolute bottom of the last 30 years that was reached in 2001. So, I would think that even in an economic meltdown scenario the curve should move into deep backwardation with future prices much less affected providing some support to companies.
Any thought regarding the supply-demand balance in the current stock scenario?
Thanks, and sorry for the long-winded question.