I would add that 2024 is a election year in the US, another reason why a recession will not be allowed to happen. But all these monetary policy shenanigans will be over at some stage, when debt is too high for the UST to be "risk free". Then what?
While I agree the soft landing is the least likely outcome, I am becoming more concerned about a reignition of inflation as tlower market rates pushing housing higher is going to prevent any further decline in the readings. as well, it appears there is a growing risk that the Middle East situation becomes a bigger problem for oil markets and we see a rise in energy costs, which will not only drive inflation higher, but will eat into spending elsewhere. my take is a decent first half to 2024 and then a reversal to much worse outcomes
I think if a hard landing will happen, we will see some economic data to suggest that in the first couple of months in the year. Great analysis. Another massive bond market sell off probably the biggest threat to equities.
Thanks. I would be grateful if you share more details regarding the sizing of your long-term and/or tactical positions outlined at the end of each article.
Also, regarding the "More Americans than ever own stocks" - is this including index funds, target date funds, 401Ks, etc?
Good article Florian. Maybe, I like it bc of the confirmation bias!
Three additional factors for re-acceleration:
1). US single family homebuilding is on fire with falling rates;
2) we will get another round if COLA indexation in January (not as bug as last year but still sizeable)
3) its an election year. Economy is not allowed to go into recession.
Good point re COLA, think it will be 3.8pc or so
Wonder if wages will lead or lag in a re-heat scenario?
This is good, very good
Thank you :)
I would add that 2024 is a election year in the US, another reason why a recession will not be allowed to happen. But all these monetary policy shenanigans will be over at some stage, when debt is too high for the UST to be "risk free". Then what?
While I agree the soft landing is the least likely outcome, I am becoming more concerned about a reignition of inflation as tlower market rates pushing housing higher is going to prevent any further decline in the readings. as well, it appears there is a growing risk that the Middle East situation becomes a bigger problem for oil markets and we see a rise in energy costs, which will not only drive inflation higher, but will eat into spending elsewhere. my take is a decent first half to 2024 and then a reversal to much worse outcomes
I think if a hard landing will happen, we will see some economic data to suggest that in the first couple of months in the year. Great analysis. Another massive bond market sell off probably the biggest threat to equities.
Thanks. I would be grateful if you share more details regarding the sizing of your long-term and/or tactical positions outlined at the end of each article.
Also, regarding the "More Americans than ever own stocks" - is this including index funds, target date funds, 401Ks, etc?