Excellent post Florian.. cleared up most of klmy doubts I had, but majorly what would NEGATE my positioning, i.e. rise in yields would immediately negate it. (Im short nq long solar - $maxn, $tpic and $stem).
Having said that, i think there is 0% chance of a soft landing - why - because Jim Cramer said we're having one.. that guy has a crytal ball on the exactly opposite thing that's gonna happen.
"I continue to think that the market is currently too negative on an imminent recession for the US economy".... which market are you referring to here? Bond or commodities I won't argue, but don't necessarily agree. Equities? EPS estimates, volatility levels and skews would say the market is as "soft landing" drunk as it's ever been. Genuinely curious if you're seeing other data points.
Always appreciate you insight. What are your thoughts on solar given the excess supply caused by China stimulus in this area. Per a WSJ article prices of polysilicon are down 50% and panels are down 40% from start of year.
Thank you! I have no fundamental views, this is purely a positioning driven trade with a year end expiry, and may fail for many reasons incl poor fundamentals
great comprehensive take, thank you!
Appreciate it
Excellent post Florian.. cleared up most of klmy doubts I had, but majorly what would NEGATE my positioning, i.e. rise in yields would immediately negate it. (Im short nq long solar - $maxn, $tpic and $stem).
Having said that, i think there is 0% chance of a soft landing - why - because Jim Cramer said we're having one.. that guy has a crytal ball on the exactly opposite thing that's gonna happen.
Thank you, glad to hear it was helpful!
thanks for this.
"I continue to think that the market is currently too negative on an imminent recession for the US economy".... which market are you referring to here? Bond or commodities I won't argue, but don't necessarily agree. Equities? EPS estimates, volatility levels and skews would say the market is as "soft landing" drunk as it's ever been. Genuinely curious if you're seeing other data points.
Yes bonds, oil, industrial commodities and various intermarket ratios for equities. Just look at miners vs tech or small caps vs large caps (as shown)
Really valuable and thoughtful!
Thank you!
Always appreciate you insight. What are your thoughts on solar given the excess supply caused by China stimulus in this area. Per a WSJ article prices of polysilicon are down 50% and panels are down 40% from start of year.
Thank you! I have no fundamental views, this is purely a positioning driven trade with a year end expiry, and may fail for many reasons incl poor fundamentals