11 Comments

great comprehensive take, thank you!

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Nov 18, 2023Liked by Florian Kronawitter

Excellent post Florian.. cleared up most of klmy doubts I had, but majorly what would NEGATE my positioning, i.e. rise in yields would immediately negate it. (Im short nq long solar - $maxn, $tpic and $stem).

Having said that, i think there is 0% chance of a soft landing - why - because Jim Cramer said we're having one.. that guy has a crytal ball on the exactly opposite thing that's gonna happen.

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Nov 18, 2023Liked by Florian Kronawitter

thanks for this.

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Nov 17, 2023Liked by Florian Kronawitter

"I continue to think that the market is currently too negative on an imminent recession for the US economy".... which market are you referring to here? Bond or commodities I won't argue, but don't necessarily agree. Equities? EPS estimates, volatility levels and skews would say the market is as "soft landing" drunk as it's ever been. Genuinely curious if you're seeing other data points.

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Nov 17, 2023Liked by Florian Kronawitter

Really valuable and thoughtful!

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Nov 17, 2023Liked by Florian Kronawitter

Always appreciate you insight. What are your thoughts on solar given the excess supply caused by China stimulus in this area. Per a WSJ article prices of polysilicon are down 50% and panels are down 40% from start of year.

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