Great write up Florian! One small nitpick, you state the "bailout" will be paid for by the "tax payer". It was my understanding that the FDIC is picking up the whole tab by increasing the fees all banks pay to be covered by FDIC insurance (so all banks are actually picking up the tab). Am I wrong on that? Many thanks, Rick
From an international perspective it's not obvious how a US banking and liquidity crisis leads to demand for dollars and a stronger dollar. Near-term the dollar seems to be weakening. Could gold and crypto be better safe havens than US bonds?
Hi, I would like to share a post on the same issue
Series of financial crises in the U.S. accompanies by massive money prints. In spite of this, the money didn't reach the entire population, but only a small portion of it. The result, people became more cynical about capitalism and resentful of it. The official US administration project that the US national debt is not going to decrease, but rather will increase. Is the US economy another step closer to default? Anarchy is waiting at the door if you cannot trust politicians. Say goodbye to the dollars in your bank… ?!?!
Hi Florian, if I understand your thesis correctly, the core assumption is that less loans would come from small banks -> deflationary. Could this be offset by big banks who are getting flood of deposit from small banks?
Great write up Florian! One small nitpick, you state the "bailout" will be paid for by the "tax payer". It was my understanding that the FDIC is picking up the whole tab by increasing the fees all banks pay to be covered by FDIC insurance (so all banks are actually picking up the tab). Am I wrong on that? Many thanks, Rick
From an international perspective it's not obvious how a US banking and liquidity crisis leads to demand for dollars and a stronger dollar. Near-term the dollar seems to be weakening. Could gold and crypto be better safe havens than US bonds?
Hi, I would like to share a post on the same issue
Series of financial crises in the U.S. accompanies by massive money prints. In spite of this, the money didn't reach the entire population, but only a small portion of it. The result, people became more cynical about capitalism and resentful of it. The official US administration project that the US national debt is not going to decrease, but rather will increase. Is the US economy another step closer to default? Anarchy is waiting at the door if you cannot trust politicians. Say goodbye to the dollars in your bank… ?!?!
https://open.substack.com/pub/modelsforlife/p/the-age-of-anarchy?r=22xnef&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
What is SLRN?
Hi Florian, if I understand your thesis correctly, the core assumption is that less loans would come from small banks -> deflationary. Could this be offset by big banks who are getting flood of deposit from small banks?
in 2008, the highest TLT went was 120. Is this the price ceiling for bond? Florian, what's your view on how high TLT could go and why? thanks
Splendid, thanks for your continuous efforts and analysis.