love that you share both your logic and your investment/tactical decisions.... not frequent to find a professional willing to share so much... thank you
Another phenomenal post. Lucid, concise, and incisive. A question on one detail:
"The current total of US coupons outstanding is ~$17tr (~20% of $23tr total debt)"
Is $17tr coupons 20% of $23tr total debt under certain weighting or flows? Comparing fiscaldata.treasury.gov for '23 Q4 I see $17~18tr coupons vs $26tr total. Maybe it is 20% under certain circumstances, but it went over my head.
I've been following your work since a while and I've realized you've been mentioning the waiting for an entry in robotics quite often. Would you mind elaborating on your process regarding the selection of assets related to robotics? Are you following some single names or indices, and if yes, would you mind sharing some of them or elaborating on the screening process?
Splitting into short-term and long-term book is very helpful as often timescale makes the difference between a good and a bad trade / investment. Do you have a view on gold? Could you see it as being part of your long-term book at some point?
I love your writing. And I often disagree with you. This is a good thing. You almost always have a different take on things than most. And very very thoughtful ones. Thank you
There seems to be a growing belief in many that inflation is about to rear it's ugly head again. I think, while possible, it is likely transitory (I know...) as the contraction in bank credit, M2, and ODL will be a very difficult headwind that usually leads to not just immaculate disinflation but deflation. A credit event/banking crisis may hasten this if that occurs.
The goods slowdown may be turning back up, but it also has the headwinds of rising unemployment that may have been masked somewhat by BLS modeling and reduced claims (see Michael Green's latest (https://www.yesigiveafig.com/p/somethings-rotten-in-data) and Anna Wong on Bloomberg as well). Housing affordability will be atrocious till we have less than 5% mortgage rates, and consumers have also loaded up on debt... there are beasts below the surface that can still lead to a recession, reflexivity or not. Long and variable lags are indeed real.
love that you share both your logic and your investment/tactical decisions.... not frequent to find a professional willing to share so much... thank you
Excellent post.
Another phenomenal post. Lucid, concise, and incisive. A question on one detail:
"The current total of US coupons outstanding is ~$17tr (~20% of $23tr total debt)"
Is $17tr coupons 20% of $23tr total debt under certain weighting or flows? Comparing fiscaldata.treasury.gov for '23 Q4 I see $17~18tr coupons vs $26tr total. Maybe it is 20% under certain circumstances, but it went over my head.
Hi Florian, great article, thanks for it.
Could you explain a bit more the particular part of the AI value chain? I followed through the Twitter link but could not quite get it.
I've been following your work since a while and I've realized you've been mentioning the waiting for an entry in robotics quite often. Would you mind elaborating on your process regarding the selection of assets related to robotics? Are you following some single names or indices, and if yes, would you mind sharing some of them or elaborating on the screening process?
It is amazing how our allocation is similar. would recommend to check out MTBA etf
great coverage, thank you!
Splitting into short-term and long-term book is very helpful as often timescale makes the difference between a good and a bad trade / investment. Do you have a view on gold? Could you see it as being part of your long-term book at some point?
I love your writing. And I often disagree with you. This is a good thing. You almost always have a different take on things than most. And very very thoughtful ones. Thank you
There seems to be a growing belief in many that inflation is about to rear it's ugly head again. I think, while possible, it is likely transitory (I know...) as the contraction in bank credit, M2, and ODL will be a very difficult headwind that usually leads to not just immaculate disinflation but deflation. A credit event/banking crisis may hasten this if that occurs.
The goods slowdown may be turning back up, but it also has the headwinds of rising unemployment that may have been masked somewhat by BLS modeling and reduced claims (see Michael Green's latest (https://www.yesigiveafig.com/p/somethings-rotten-in-data) and Anna Wong on Bloomberg as well). Housing affordability will be atrocious till we have less than 5% mortgage rates, and consumers have also loaded up on debt... there are beasts below the surface that can still lead to a recession, reflexivity or not. Long and variable lags are indeed real.
Another great post. i like the new format.
It looks like some of your short-term and long-term positions are at odds.
How to manage that in your portfolio, just go with the net allocations?
Excellent post. Thanks!
Thanks, great process
Dropped ARKK?
Reading this feels like solving a jigsaw puzzle. Amazing article.