Florian, the battle lines are across so many sides regarding future growth or slowdown, inflation or deflation, scarcity or surplus it is difficult to keep up. In fact, what makes this such an interesting market is that everyone has data points to highlight to support their thesis, whether bullish or bearish, hawkish or dovish. it is truly a muddle, but great call on Chinese stocks. LeShrub saying the same thing
Excellent piece Florian. What was your principal rationale for dipping your toe back in the Euro Luxury stocks? LVMH / $MC Eur675 seems like in interesting multi year point of interest. Should work if China works.
Quite likely that the Chinese govt was forced to act due to the upcoming Lunar NY holidays. Real market action (up or down) should unfold after the holidays.
"The Chinese government does not want the stock market to go down further and has acted forcefully. Betting on more declines means fighting the government, historically never a good idea in asset markets."
You could have said that a few times before, as it's not the first time the government steps in to support the market, which bounces, and continues to make new lows. It's ok if your intention is to trade a squeeze, but for that you wouldn't be using arguments like historically it's a good or bad idea to do x or y.
This could be the bottom, of course, there's just no technical case for anything more than a long to resistance. Good luck.
I find your takes extremely insightful, and love the work you put out into the world. Sincere thanks.
Regarding the "markets" section however sometimes I do wonder whether all the market-timing you appear to be engaging in is worth the efforts, trading expenses, etc..
If you may share, what are your thoughts around this quandary?
Florian, the battle lines are across so many sides regarding future growth or slowdown, inflation or deflation, scarcity or surplus it is difficult to keep up. In fact, what makes this such an interesting market is that everyone has data points to highlight to support their thesis, whether bullish or bearish, hawkish or dovish. it is truly a muddle, but great call on Chinese stocks. LeShrub saying the same thing
Excellent piece Florian. What was your principal rationale for dipping your toe back in the Euro Luxury stocks? LVMH / $MC Eur675 seems like in interesting multi year point of interest. Should work if China works.
Quite likely that the Chinese govt was forced to act due to the upcoming Lunar NY holidays. Real market action (up or down) should unfold after the holidays.
"The Chinese government does not want the stock market to go down further and has acted forcefully. Betting on more declines means fighting the government, historically never a good idea in asset markets."
You could have said that a few times before, as it's not the first time the government steps in to support the market, which bounces, and continues to make new lows. It's ok if your intention is to trade a squeeze, but for that you wouldn't be using arguments like historically it's a good or bad idea to do x or y.
This could be the bottom, of course, there's just no technical case for anything more than a long to resistance. Good luck.
I find your takes extremely insightful, and love the work you put out into the world. Sincere thanks.
Regarding the "markets" section however sometimes I do wonder whether all the market-timing you appear to be engaging in is worth the efforts, trading expenses, etc..
If you may share, what are your thoughts around this quandary?
I appreciate your methodology and consistency in analisys besides your being humble in fornt of the market action. Thank you,