16 Comments
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Andy Fately's avatar

Florian, the battle lines are across so many sides regarding future growth or slowdown, inflation or deflation, scarcity or surplus it is difficult to keep up. In fact, what makes this such an interesting market is that everyone has data points to highlight to support their thesis, whether bullish or bearish, hawkish or dovish. it is truly a muddle, but great call on Chinese stocks. LeShrub saying the same thing

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Florian Kronawitter's avatar

Thanks for this. Yes a Rorschach test, you can see what you want to see!

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The Blind Squirrel's avatar

Excellent piece Florian. What was your principal rationale for dipping your toe back in the Euro Luxury stocks? LVMH / $MC Eur675 seems like in interesting multi year point of interest. Should work if China works.

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Florian Kronawitter's avatar

Thank you. Yes exactly, Kering back at Covid lows, LVMH multi-year valuation low etc

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The Blind Squirrel's avatar

LVMH Q4! Looking good Billy Ray!

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ams1699's avatar

Quite likely that the Chinese govt was forced to act due to the upcoming Lunar NY holidays. Real market action (up or down) should unfold after the holidays.

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Florian Kronawitter's avatar

good point!

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Miguel da Fonseca's avatar

"The Chinese government does not want the stock market to go down further and has acted forcefully. Betting on more declines means fighting the government, historically never a good idea in asset markets."

You could have said that a few times before, as it's not the first time the government steps in to support the market, which bounces, and continues to make new lows. It's ok if your intention is to trade a squeeze, but for that you wouldn't be using arguments like historically it's a good or bad idea to do x or y.

This could be the bottom, of course, there's just no technical case for anything more than a long to resistance. Good luck.

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Florian Kronawitter's avatar

Thanks Miguel. I would say the previous measures were all very half hearted, while this one is if not a bazooka at least a shot gun. We know now were the pain point is

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Miguel da Fonseca's avatar

This is true, and I realize there are other arguments that are supportive of a bottom, such as the HF that went bankrupt and technical arguments, like the '22 lows sweep and test of the '08 lows also. This market could struggle with February/March seasonality, but I get it, it's a knife that might be worth catching with the proper position size. Best, M.

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Gnòtul's avatar

I find your takes extremely insightful, and love the work you put out into the world. Sincere thanks.

Regarding the "markets" section however sometimes I do wonder whether all the market-timing you appear to be engaging in is worth the efforts, trading expenses, etc..

If you may share, what are your thoughts around this quandary?

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Florian Kronawitter's avatar

Thanks so much for this. Good question - it is a never ending search for edge. The point appears less obvious when stocks go up every day, however that is not always the case. The aim is to avoid drawdowns when equities have them

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Gnòtul's avatar

Got it: I suppose this would indicate more of an hedging focus then. Many thanks for taking the time to reply, and thanks once again for sharing your insightful thoughts with us.

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Florian Kronawitter's avatar

My pleasure!

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Jackster's avatar

I appreciate your methodology and consistency in analisys besides your being humble in fornt of the market action. Thank you,

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Florian Kronawitter's avatar

My pleasure, really appreciate it

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