Florian- what's your view on inflation swaps? As in long TIPS and short unprotected bonds (I think there's some ETFs which do it for you)? Isn't that the best way to press your overarching view that inflation is higher for longer/and more structural in nature (which I agree with)?
very interesting. but supply is missing here, and it is the big question for Oil in 2023. I expect some reaction by shale, it may not be sufficient as shale is a small part of world supply.
Usually when we see NAHB down, ISM new orders down, etc, we see unemployment rise & consumer spending fall. If we don't see consumer spending rise & don't see CL tick up as a result, think we're actually at a soft landing of 3.5-4% fed funds?
Florian- what's your view on inflation swaps? As in long TIPS and short unprotected bonds (I think there's some ETFs which do it for you)? Isn't that the best way to press your overarching view that inflation is higher for longer/and more structural in nature (which I agree with)?
Another top quality analysis.. Superb read. Ty for sharing
very interesting. but supply is missing here, and it is the big question for Oil in 2023. I expect some reaction by shale, it may not be sufficient as shale is a small part of world supply.
Same for Russian Gas being blocked or not
Usually when we see NAHB down, ISM new orders down, etc, we see unemployment rise & consumer spending fall. If we don't see consumer spending rise & don't see CL tick up as a result, think we're actually at a soft landing of 3.5-4% fed funds?