15 Comments
Oct 17, 2023Liked by Florian Kronawitter

I really appreciate the clarity and comprehensive approach of your analysis, thank you for sharing your view!

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My pleasure!

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Oct 18, 2023Liked by Florian Kronawitter

The Mag 7 employ roughly 6.6 million Americans? 😳

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Not all 300m Americans are part of the labor market…

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So you meant 2% of the labor force, not 2% of Americans. Well, I’m still stunned.

Anyway, thanks for the article, I always enjoy them! :-)

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Oct 18, 2023Liked by Florian Kronawitter

Listening to Florian listen to the market is well worth my time! Thank you for another great piece.

You are not alone in calling out 5 year TIPS as an investment worth taking a look at. Bob Elliott, Lyn Alden and Andy Constan have also pointed to the value of 5 year TIPS, yielding 2.6% as of today.

Question: Would purchasing the TIP ETF provide both medium term, tactical opportunity should rates fall as a result of Fed action and simultaneously provide interest yield comparable to short term treasuries. (Not asking for investment advise, just mechanics of the TIP ETF).

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Thanks for this. Unfort I am not familiar with that ETF. But most brokers allow you to trade the bonds directly, schwab, ibkr etc

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Oct 18, 2023Liked by Florian Kronawitter

Great work! I’ve always had this dilemma in my head.

On one hand, market is a collective result of people’s actions and wisdom, so listen to the market instead of one’s opinion.

On the other hand, most people lose money in the market, retail and institutions, so why should I listen to the collective wisdom of money losers? What do you think? Thanks

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Keep in mind that the larger the size the better informed the market participants, and they make the price!

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Thx for the reply and keep up the good work 👍 I like you always pointing out counter arguments and scenarios that against your trades

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excellent as always. One question however. Could it be you're not really focussing on the charts that are in front of us, and are speculating about what will happen in the future? Re the Everything Chart (Equities vs Bonds), you note a clear and strong trend. Yet, you say it may probably end soon. You could say this about every chart you present... but you don't.

IMO, that's the danger of mixing macro and technical analysis. I don't like the chart in front of me? I qualify it with macro data. I want to think the macro data is flawed? I try to disprove it with a chart. You say tomato, I say epistemology.

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Good observation, yes, could totally be the case

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Oct 18, 2023Liked by Florian Kronawitter

Me too! Great postings Florian..........

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Thank you!

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IMHO, your writing is really simple and effective in explaining your points. Thank you.

Can I ask one question about the index (passive) and all other 401k/target funds? Are they the new market put? Of course, nothing is 100% bullet proof. I am just wondering if they could prevent a market deterioration unless there is a significant seller in a short period of time vs the ongoing passive buying?

I've been 80% in cash for about 4-5 months. I am seeing pockets of opportunities but in no rush to deploy. Not yet.

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