13 Comments
May 31, 2023Liked by Florian Kronawitter

Hi Florian, interesting take. I noticed you never mentioned services and wages inflation. How would it go down if unemployment doesn't increase? What would the Fed do if core inflation sticks to a 3.5-4% range? I feel this is a missing puzzle piece in your otherwise bold take (bold since other smart people believe summer is when the recession finally accelerates).

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Jun 5, 2023Liked by Florian Kronawitter

You mentioned ISM manufacturing having good correlation with russell 2000. Why you choose ISM rather than Markit? You think ISM more accurate than Markit?

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Excellent analysis, thanks!

Agree with A.I, would wait for the laggards to start catching up, though.

Yes, KWEB will be the place to be, sooner or later.

https://martinschwoerer.substack.com/p/bubble-bubble-artificial-trouble

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Nice thesis for a soft landing. Profit margins are declining, but if unemployment rises only a little bit until the next cycle possibly starts in summer, the Fed would have achieved their well communicated soft landing. Of course a lot of IFs, but not impossible at all.

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May 31, 2023Liked by Florian Kronawitter

If manufacturing turns, this should also pull up commodities later this summer?

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Florian, you mentioned you are investing in Chinese tech stocks. Do you consider their accounting practice, nationalization by the state, risk factors?

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Luke Gromen made the point that high interest rates IN-crease inflation (high debt level -> high income for private sector). This and your expectation of economy turning would mean Fed will have to increase rates even further?

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