17 Comments

It makes some sense to let positioning, as a jury, decide between two conflicting theories or narratives, the problem is timing. Large specs can be at extremes for quite some time. Not a drawdown I would welcome.

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Jan 10Liked by Florian Kronawitter

where can I find pricing on "inflation swaps"?

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Jan 10Liked by Florian Kronawitter

I like how you look at both sides of the coin in your articles, much more informative than the standard bull- or bear-posting.

The path of least resistance is always up for markets. Sure positioning is stretched but it can always get more stretched. Is positioning ever not stretched close to ATHs?

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Jan 10Liked by Florian Kronawitter

You are very methodical in your development of theses, and write with great clarity. A pleasure to read.

Because this post addresses biases, this question becomes more prominent: to what extent does the bias to either utilize the macro/ignore the macro impact the outcome? i.e., given that over time there will be errors, how does the success rate compare to that of a naive approach?

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Jan 10Liked by Florian Kronawitter

Excellent Florian 🔥

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Jan 10Liked by Florian Kronawitter

A classic!

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I grew up in Rorschach. Loved to read.

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Excellent as always Florian! Thank you

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why you think CPI is coming in hot?

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