Absolute pleasure to read.. i find myself going over it again and again.. When you refer to owning cash cash, are you referring to going long very short paper, one year maturity ? US-1-YEAR rates@ 3.9% ?Also, can one reconcile a core CPI north of 6, and US inflation expectations for the one year period of 2.2%?
Great substack. Balanced, data driven and well written.
One Question, have you looked at TIPS?
The 5Y is around 1% and I know it should be affected by QE. But its my impression that nominal yields are the ones that need to raise if inflation continue to stay elevated but am not sure about real rates.
Absolute pleasure to read.. i find myself going over it again and again.. When you refer to owning cash cash, are you referring to going long very short paper, one year maturity ? US-1-YEAR rates@ 3.9% ?Also, can one reconcile a core CPI north of 6, and US inflation expectations for the one year period of 2.2%?
Thank you! Yes and yes. 6pc is over last year, 2.2 would be over past year one year from now
Beautiful analysis.
Question: why do you think treasury liquidity is going to be an issue given reverse repo and Fed swap lines?
Fantastic summary mate. About print this off for my girlfriend to read.
Timing the pivot will be tough, good luck to us all
But how to know when the FED pivot will really happen?
Great substack. Balanced, data driven and well written.
One Question, have you looked at TIPS?
The 5Y is around 1% and I know it should be affected by QE. But its my impression that nominal yields are the ones that need to raise if inflation continue to stay elevated but am not sure about real rates.
THANKS
Thanks a lot! Have not looked at TIPS unfort