24 Comments
Nov 29, 2023Liked by Florian Kronawitter

great read. thanks for taking the time to share with us.

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Dec 1, 2023Liked by Florian Kronawitter

As always, I enjoy your analysis. I think we are in unchartered waters. The deficits and the debt continue to explode and JPow doesn't want to be Arthur Burns. Therefore, he stays higher for longer. The last Treasury auctions were weak in my opinion and likely to get weaker. The Pivot scenario plays daily on TV and the average investor can't get enough. We are in the strongest period of the year, historically, so a rally into year-end is a decent likelihood. Next year is an election year and some sort of easing is likely. While gold has had a great run, despite high rates, it's under owned. If you are not a nimble trader, the risks outweigh the rewards in my opinion. A 5% yield on cash is a pretty good risk free rate!

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Nov 30, 2023Liked by Florian Kronawitter

This post is one of your best in my humble opinion. To argue for 3 sides, interpret the arguments together at the end, and bring it home with a trade is just masterful.

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Easily my fave follow atm. You're really growing on me florian 😜

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Nov 29, 2023Liked by Florian Kronawitter

Really like this one, thank you for sharing your thoughts!

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Dec 6, 2023Liked by Florian Kronawitter

Great as always Florian. Thanks for your work!

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Nov 30, 2023Liked by Florian Kronawitter

Great read, thanks for sharing.

So 6:1 on a contract is like twice that underlying?

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Nov 30, 2023Liked by Florian Kronawitter

Thanks. really appreciate you calm, rational approach. And transparent sharing of your trades. Well done!

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Actually, there's been many soft landings over the years according to this essay by a Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve.

https://bcf.princeton.edu/events/alan-blinder-on-landings-hard-and-soft-the-fed-1965-2020/

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Nov 29, 2023Liked by Florian Kronawitter

It's refreshing and very helpful to see an objective analysis and synthesis of the three scenarios. Very thoughtful and presented, as always, with humility. Thanks very much for sharing this.

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As always, I enjoy your analysis. I think we are in unchartered waters. The deficits and the debt continue to explode and JPow doesn't want to be Arthur Burns. Therefore, he stays higher for longer. The last Treasury auctions were weak in my opinion and likely to get weaker. The Pivot scenario plays daily on TV and the average investor can't get enough. We are in the strongest period of the year, historically, so a rally into year-end is a decent likelihood. Next year is an election year and some sort of easing is likely. While gold has had a great run, despite high rates, it's under owned. If you are not a nimble trader, the risks outweigh the rewards in my opinion. A 5% yield on cash is a pretty good risk free rate!

Expand full comment

great read, thank you, appreciate it Florian!

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As always, I enjoy your analysis. I think we are in unchartered waters. The deficits and the debt continue to explode and JPow doesn't want to be Arthur Burns. Therefore, he stays higher for longer. The last Treasury auctions were weak in my opinion and likely to get weaker. The Pivot scenario plays daily on TV and the average investor can't get enough. We are in the strongest period of the year, historically, so a rally into year-end is a decent likelihood. Next year is an election year and some sort of easing is likely. While gold has had a great run, despite high rates, it's under owned. If you are not a nimble trader, the risks outweigh the rewards in my opinion. A 5% yield on cash is a pretty good risk free rate!

Expand full comment