As always, I enjoy your analysis. I think we are in unchartered waters. The deficits and the debt continue to explode and JPow doesn't want to be Arthur Burns. Therefore, he stays higher for longer. The last Treasury auctions were weak in my opinion and likely to get weaker. The Pivot scenario plays daily on TV and the average investor can't get enough. We are in the strongest period of the year, historically, so a rally into year-end is a decent likelihood. Next year is an election year and some sort of easing is likely. While gold has had a great run, despite high rates, it's under owned. If you are not a nimble trader, the risks outweigh the rewards in my opinion. A 5% yield on cash is a pretty good risk free rate!
This post is one of your best in my humble opinion. To argue for 3 sides, interpret the arguments together at the end, and bring it home with a trade is just masterful.
Yeah, sorry wasn't clear there, was just curious how you came to the ratio. Not asking for trade advisement to be clear lol. Thx again for sharing your thoughts.
Thanks for this Miguel. I linked a source to my comment, think the connection is to the public's expectation of a soft landing as measured by how frequently it is cited. There may be other definitions. I will read it!
It's refreshing and very helpful to see an objective analysis and synthesis of the three scenarios. Very thoughtful and presented, as always, with humility. Thanks very much for sharing this.
As always, I enjoy your analysis. I think we are in unchartered waters. The deficits and the debt continue to explode and JPow doesn't want to be Arthur Burns. Therefore, he stays higher for longer. The last Treasury auctions were weak in my opinion and likely to get weaker. The Pivot scenario plays daily on TV and the average investor can't get enough. We are in the strongest period of the year, historically, so a rally into year-end is a decent likelihood. Next year is an election year and some sort of easing is likely. While gold has had a great run, despite high rates, it's under owned. If you are not a nimble trader, the risks outweigh the rewards in my opinion. A 5% yield on cash is a pretty good risk free rate!
As always, I enjoy your analysis. I think we are in unchartered waters. The deficits and the debt continue to explode and JPow doesn't want to be Arthur Burns. Therefore, he stays higher for longer. The last Treasury auctions were weak in my opinion and likely to get weaker. The Pivot scenario plays daily on TV and the average investor can't get enough. We are in the strongest period of the year, historically, so a rally into year-end is a decent likelihood. Next year is an election year and some sort of easing is likely. While gold has had a great run, despite high rates, it's under owned. If you are not a nimble trader, the risks outweigh the rewards in my opinion. A 5% yield on cash is a pretty good risk free rate!
great read. thanks for taking the time to share with us.
My pleasure :)
As always, I enjoy your analysis. I think we are in unchartered waters. The deficits and the debt continue to explode and JPow doesn't want to be Arthur Burns. Therefore, he stays higher for longer. The last Treasury auctions were weak in my opinion and likely to get weaker. The Pivot scenario plays daily on TV and the average investor can't get enough. We are in the strongest period of the year, historically, so a rally into year-end is a decent likelihood. Next year is an election year and some sort of easing is likely. While gold has had a great run, despite high rates, it's under owned. If you are not a nimble trader, the risks outweigh the rewards in my opinion. A 5% yield on cash is a pretty good risk free rate!
Thank you for this, Phil
I comment when I think that I have something to add. Keep up the good work!
This post is one of your best in my humble opinion. To argue for 3 sides, interpret the arguments together at the end, and bring it home with a trade is just masterful.
Thanks, really appreciate it!
Easily my fave follow atm. You're really growing on me florian 😜
Glad to hear that!
Really like this one, thank you for sharing your thoughts!
Thank you!
Great as always Florian. Thanks for your work!
Great read, thanks for sharing.
So 6:1 on a contract is like twice that underlying?
Thank you! Not sure on the question, but cannot advise on these technicalities..
Yeah, sorry wasn't clear there, was just curious how you came to the ratio. Not asking for trade advisement to be clear lol. Thx again for sharing your thoughts.
Thanks. really appreciate you calm, rational approach. And transparent sharing of your trades. Well done!
Thank you, really appreciate it!
Actually, there's been many soft landings over the years according to this essay by a Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve.
https://bcf.princeton.edu/events/alan-blinder-on-landings-hard-and-soft-the-fed-1965-2020/
Thanks for this Miguel. I linked a source to my comment, think the connection is to the public's expectation of a soft landing as measured by how frequently it is cited. There may be other definitions. I will read it!
It's refreshing and very helpful to see an objective analysis and synthesis of the three scenarios. Very thoughtful and presented, as always, with humility. Thanks very much for sharing this.
Thanks for your feedback Bill!
As always, I enjoy your analysis. I think we are in unchartered waters. The deficits and the debt continue to explode and JPow doesn't want to be Arthur Burns. Therefore, he stays higher for longer. The last Treasury auctions were weak in my opinion and likely to get weaker. The Pivot scenario plays daily on TV and the average investor can't get enough. We are in the strongest period of the year, historically, so a rally into year-end is a decent likelihood. Next year is an election year and some sort of easing is likely. While gold has had a great run, despite high rates, it's under owned. If you are not a nimble trader, the risks outweigh the rewards in my opinion. A 5% yield on cash is a pretty good risk free rate!
great read, thank you, appreciate it Florian!
As always, I enjoy your analysis. I think we are in unchartered waters. The deficits and the debt continue to explode and JPow doesn't want to be Arthur Burns. Therefore, he stays higher for longer. The last Treasury auctions were weak in my opinion and likely to get weaker. The Pivot scenario plays daily on TV and the average investor can't get enough. We are in the strongest period of the year, historically, so a rally into year-end is a decent likelihood. Next year is an election year and some sort of easing is likely. While gold has had a great run, despite high rates, it's under owned. If you are not a nimble trader, the risks outweigh the rewards in my opinion. A 5% yield on cash is a pretty good risk free rate!