Great write-up. I just got turned onto your site from reading about in some other source and I am really enjoying it. You write really well and have cogent arguments to back up your points. Thanks for posting!
The consensus market view seems to be that goods inflation has peaked and energy inflation depends on Russia-Ukraine (supply) and China's reopening (potential demand), which leaves services.
Are there any leading indicators you look at for services inflation?
Thanks for this. Yes- rent is a service, as are airfares, hospital bills etc. Best medium-term indicator for service inflation IMO is wage growth though, as wages biggest cost for services
Thanks -- you've phrased it more concisely, and this is what I'm trying to understand better. If wages are driving services inflation, what do you think is the best 3-6 mo leading indicator for wages?
I only ask because it seems like most people are using heuristics like the vacancies-to-unemployed ratio or the monthly lagging JOLTS release, only to be surprised by the wages increases reported in real time.
Great write-up. I just got turned onto your site from reading about in some other source and I am really enjoying it. You write really well and have cogent arguments to back up your points. Thanks for posting!
Thank you Rick, far too kind to say!
Great post!
The consensus market view seems to be that goods inflation has peaked and energy inflation depends on Russia-Ukraine (supply) and China's reopening (potential demand), which leaves services.
Are there any leading indicators you look at for services inflation?
Thanks for this. Yes- rent is a service, as are airfares, hospital bills etc. Best medium-term indicator for service inflation IMO is wage growth though, as wages biggest cost for services
Thanks -- you've phrased it more concisely, and this is what I'm trying to understand better. If wages are driving services inflation, what do you think is the best 3-6 mo leading indicator for wages?
I only ask because it seems like most people are using heuristics like the vacancies-to-unemployed ratio or the monthly lagging JOLTS release, only to be surprised by the wages increases reported in real time.
I think weekly jobless claims best for this! JOLTS lagging
Thanks so much! Love your work and approach.
Thank you :)
Any evidence for your claim that "... COVID-19 vaccines... saved millions of lives of especially older people..."?
See here: https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1543359375737294850?s=20&t=DH8-BBM8P2eYXKtWSRhmUQ
I dont subscribe to the Economist so cant comment further. on that article. My reading, of multiple sources, is quite the opposite. A few examples:
https://twitter.com/MaajidNawaz/status/1542865893641912324
https://twitter.com/risemelbourne/status/1529408269831540736
https://tntradio.live/msn-quietly-deleted-a-story-revealing-that-severe-covid-19-is-rarely-found-in-the-unvaccinated/
https://twitter.com/SallyMayweather/status/1533435223928717314