Florian, thanks so much for the awesome works on labor market tightness. Would you shed some light on the source data for company size based job vacancies? Fascinating angle!
Florian, what do you see as BoE options (now/ medium term)? It looks to me like they have the worst mix of high inflation expectations and a moribund economy.
Florian, big fan of your work. Regarding the second part of this post related to likely upcoming political choice by the Fed. Mike Taylor has done a few interviews (Hedgeye / Grant Williams) recently discussing this same idea, and makes many good points, he takes the side (and hopes) the Fed does the hard thing, holds rates up, allows a cleanse of bad credit, etc to 1) allow the can to be kicked down the road further without YCC and 2) cement Powell's legacy with his social circle at the US Treasury. Whereas you are leaning towards the political winds pushing him to pivot / YCC (Mike's big fear for the long-term future). I think both of you make really good points but wondering if you have listened to his views and if so any additional comments based on his thoughts - thanks.
Thanks, Florian. Very well done. I would second your point that Millennial voting preferences, shaped by Gramscian cultural Marxism that saturates public schools, means the notion that the USA is at the center of the economic universe is a presumption that will be tested in the decade ahead. If they see themselves as victims of a series of bubbles and crashes and cannot get themselves ahead in life, and thus vote themselves ever more benefits from the Treasury, I fail to see how that is bullish for capital formation and profits in the long run. This leads me to see a Fed that’s more reactive and political, with less maneuverability to pump risk assets and more pressure to fund the deficit (without admitting it, of course).
Thanks for this update. Your posts are by far the clearest, most plausible and most actionable of the various "big picture" financial and trading substacks that I've come across. I've bought a couple of TIPS-related ETFs (LTPZ and SPIP) based on your Dec 22 post and plan to add more on pullbacks.
Florian, thanks so much for the awesome works on labor market tightness. Would you shed some light on the source data for company size based job vacancies? Fascinating angle!
From jefferies! See the JOLTS report for details also
Thank you!
Florian, what do you see as BoE options (now/ medium term)? It looks to me like they have the worst mix of high inflation expectations and a moribund economy.
Agree with your conclusion, though dont underestimate english pragmatism
Florian, big fan of your work. Regarding the second part of this post related to likely upcoming political choice by the Fed. Mike Taylor has done a few interviews (Hedgeye / Grant Williams) recently discussing this same idea, and makes many good points, he takes the side (and hopes) the Fed does the hard thing, holds rates up, allows a cleanse of bad credit, etc to 1) allow the can to be kicked down the road further without YCC and 2) cement Powell's legacy with his social circle at the US Treasury. Whereas you are leaning towards the political winds pushing him to pivot / YCC (Mike's big fear for the long-term future). I think both of you make really good points but wondering if you have listened to his views and if so any additional comments based on his thoughts - thanks.
Thank you for this. Will check him out
Thanks, Florian. Very well done. I would second your point that Millennial voting preferences, shaped by Gramscian cultural Marxism that saturates public schools, means the notion that the USA is at the center of the economic universe is a presumption that will be tested in the decade ahead. If they see themselves as victims of a series of bubbles and crashes and cannot get themselves ahead in life, and thus vote themselves ever more benefits from the Treasury, I fail to see how that is bullish for capital formation and profits in the long run. This leads me to see a Fed that’s more reactive and political, with less maneuverability to pump risk assets and more pressure to fund the deficit (without admitting it, of course).
Thanks for this update. Your posts are by far the clearest, most plausible and most actionable of the various "big picture" financial and trading substacks that I've come across. I've bought a couple of TIPS-related ETFs (LTPZ and SPIP) based on your Dec 22 post and plan to add more on pullbacks.
Thank you, much appreciated! Please keep in mind to always do your own due diligence, and I've been wrong many times, too
"Crypto - Bitcoin is a variation of gold". LOL. Just because crypto users depict something as a coin and a gold one at that doesn't make it so.
Interesting, thank you v much