Why some recent labor market trends are concerning
Regarding "Yes, job openings are still historically high and an encouraging sign for labor demand. How can we reconcile this with tepid hiring? Skills or geographic mismatches could be the reason, as could be stale advertisements"
I heard Danielle DiMartino (I think) explaining this fact because a single remote job (WFH) is being advertised in multiple (50+) states. 50 job openings for 1 job position. Not sure if true.
Great analysis! On equity, I may argue the pain trade is up, as the early November rally saw very light volume, meaning very few people actively bought it. It was fueled by short squeeze. Also BofA survey and flow data show cash positions high and sentiment indicator very bearish. What do you think?
Nice write up. It seems a record period for corporate margins overlapped with a record period of tightness in the labor market. Any thoughts? I don't see this as a coincidence but a factor in another overlap, a record period of inflation. TLDR Companies were short staffed, raised prices to try to throttle demand, now that demand is organically coming down there's been a runway for pricing and labor expense. When does that runway end though? I suspect we have to see more determination in earnings #s first (and with the charlatans on Wall St forecasting 12% YoY eps growth it's hard to think many are sweating that yet)
I know what im doing after reading this post. Closing ALL positions at the earliest and sit in cash till things become more clear. No FOMOing for me.